Příspěvky nebo odpovědi uživatele Bacil

Erste Bank (ERST.VI)

Too far, too fast: Downgrading to Hold

Outperformer — Erste Bank has outperformed Raiffeisen International by c
40% over the past three months. We attribute outperformance to positive
sentiment following the announcement that the bank was able to secure
State support for an issue of non-dilutive tier 1 eligible participation capital
and hybrid tier 1 capital.

Risk sentiment improves in key markets — Erste’s shares have benefited
from an improvement in risk appetite that was reflected by a rally in regional
bank shares, which like Erste, have increased in value by c 40% in US$
terms over the past three months, but also by appreciating currencies in
2Q09. Erste’s 2Q09 results are likely to be positively impacted by the strong
appreciation of the Czech Koruna and the Hungarian Forint in 2Q09.

Austrian the "hidden danger" — Following a relatively downbeat assessment
of the outlook for the Austrian economy we are concerned that we may have
underestimated the risks facing the bank from its home business, especially
following a relatively downbeat assessment provided by the OECD for the
Austrian economy recently. We have increased our peak NPL forecasts to
10% from 9% for the Savings Bank division and to 9% from 8% for Erste
Bank’s Austrian retail division. This has also prompted us to increase our
provisioning forecasts for both divisions.

Maintaining Bearish View on CEE NPLs — We reiterate our previous bearish
view on the outlook for CEE NPLs, which we expect to peak at 12.5%, up
from 4.8% as of end 1Q09.

Model Tweaked — The expectation of higher loan loss provisions next year,
namely in the Austrian divisions, has led us to lower our earnings forecasts
by 10.8% next year and by 10.1% in 2011. Our 2012 forecasts, which also
are the basis for our valuation, have been revised downwards by a negligible
1.4%. Our 2009 earnings estimates remain unchanged.

Downgrading to Hold — Following the recent strong share price performance
and concerns with asset quality surprises from the Austrian business, we
lower our rating on the share to Hold/High Risk (2H) from Buy/High Risk
(1H). Our target price remains unchanged at €20 per share.

Ještě k tomu Rosenbergovi, zde je jeho pěkný slide s názvem Skromná budoucnost,
anglicky Frugal Future:
>http://www.docstoc.com/docs/1811543/The-Frugal-Future

European Telecoms Model Book.
přehled cca 20 evropských telekomunikačních firem, anglicky, 120 stran, citibank.

CEZ (CEZPsp.PR)
Q1 09 Preview
 Results on May 13th — CEZ will report Q1 ’09 results on May 13th before the
market opens. A conference call will follow on the same day at 4pm UK time.

 Weak start to the year expected — Given the economic slowdown which has
affected volumes and the fall in power prices, we are expecting Q1 ’09 results
to be below the expected trend for the FY09. We are looking for EBITDA to
grow by 2.4% y-o-y to CZK 27,905m.

 FY targets to be re-iterated — We expect CEZ to re-iterate its FY09 targets of
EBITDA at CZK 90.3b, EBIT at CZK 67.1b and net income at CZK 50.2b as
power prices have recovered and are holding up at levels supportive of that
guidance.

 Things to focus on the day — Beyond results the main area of focus for us
during the call will be: demand and power price outlook, potential purchases of
CO2 at current or lower prices and capex deployment (organic and acquisitions).

Komercni Banka as (BKOMsp.PR)
Downgrading to Hold Prior to 1Q09 Results

 1Q09 Results Preview — Komercni Banka reports 1Q09 earnings this Thursday
7 May at 7:30 UK time, 8:30 CET. We are expecting the bank to report a
sizable decline in net profit to CZK 2,141m (-35% qoq, -29% yoy) driven by a
material increase in loan loss provisioning.

 Operating Performance — We expect reasonable dynamics of operating profit in
1Q09 (+1% qoq, +17% yoy), driven by stable margins (although we expect
increased deposit competition and falling rates to put pressure on margins later
this year), flat fee income developments, continued strong customer-driven
trading income, given volatile currency and securities markets, and continued
tight cost control.

 Provisions to Weigh on Earnings — We anticipate a sharp rise in risk cost to an
annualised rate of 2.50% in 1Q09, up from 1.48% in 4Q08. The sharp increase
in provisioning is expected to be partially driven by the default of one large
client in the energy sector, which we anticipate will account for c 30% of the
provision charge in the quarter.

 Outlook Challenging — We expect the results to refocus investor attention on
slowing volumes, deteriorating asset quality, and the prospect of margin
pressure from falling rates and increased competition for deposits.

 Increase Target Price, Lowering Rating to Hold — We increase our target price
to CZK 2,845m from CZK 2,226 previously as a result of rolling forward the
basis for our valuation to our 2011 earnings forecasts (to harmonize our
valuation approach with the rest of our stock coverage). However, following the
recent strong appreciation of the share price, we believe the stock is
approaching fair value and we downgrade our rating to Hold/Low Risk (2L) from
Buy/Low Risk (1L).

Chování cen akcií a nemovitostí při minulých bankovních krizích, na východě i na západě:

http://xenetra.eu/view.php?cisloclanku=2009040003 />

>http://xenetra.eu/view.php?cisloclanku=2009040002

info o kreditkách v usa zde:
analýza deutsche bank, anglicky, 10 stránek.
toho analytika pak radši vyhodili, kazil jim takovýma analýzama kšefty :-)

>http://xenetra.eu/download.php?soubor=241

>http://xenetra.eu/download.php?soubor=239

Paper o těžbě nečlenů OPEC od ML.

>http://xenetra.eu/download.php?soubor=240

ten původní link je moc dlouhý a tak se tam nevešel, tady je kratší link - viz titulek.
UBS nákladové křivky kovů a uhlí.

link v titulku je na paper od UBS:
Nákladové křivky těžby u jednotlivých kovů a uhlí.

pozn. cena v té křivce je FOB tedy do přístavu těžaře - další náklady na přepravu po moři a po železnici je potřeba připočíst. Dále ten paper dělali australané a ti nemají šajnu co se děje ve střední evropě, kde může být jiná situace.

Padla tady zmínka o nákladech na celosvětovou těžbu koksovatelného uhlí. Zde (viz link) na straně 12 (obrázek 15) je celosvětová nákladová křivka na tunu (cash cost) a pokud si vezmete, že NWR má 74 EUR/t, tak ..............
link je v titulku příspěvku:

Tak tak, dolar je zas v kurzu.
Proč?
viz titulek

prices make the news, takže úprava zní: prices make the targets.........

Když já ale někdy nevim, jestli jsem long nebo šort. Ale ten malej had, co se ptal:tati,jsme jedovati hadi - né my jsme škrtiči.Tati opravdu nejsme jedovatí hadi - ti říkám, my jsme štrtiči, proč se pořád ptáš. Tati, já sem se kousl do jazyka! Ten na tom byl ještě hůř než já.Malej velbloud se ptá:mamíí, na co máme na hřbetě ty dva hrby?. No to když jdeme po poušti, tak z toho čerpáme vodu. Mami, ale nemyslíš že tady v zoo je nám to úplně na ...?

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