Názory, přidání nového příspěvku

TEF O2 (CR): Growth and value Buy - Rating maintained Current price: CZK 520.0* Fair value: CZK 678.0 *priced as at close of business 29/02/2008 TEF O2’s net earnings more than doubled to CZK 2.8bn in 4Q07, 26.3% above the top end of the consensus and 37.0% above our own estimate of CZK 2.0bn. Revenues rose 1.4% y/y to CZK 15.9bn, largely in line with our estimate and the market consensus of CZK 16.0bn. Mobile revenues increased 2.7% y/y to CZK 8.3bn, which mitigated the fixed revenue decline of 2.5% y/y to CZK 7.4 bn. OIBDA came in at CZK 6.6bn (+14.7% y/y), slightly above the consensus estimate of CZK 6.5bn. Strong earnings were driven by much lower depreciation (stemming from a capital expenditure undershoot) and lower financial costs. Operating income expanded 85.6% y/y to CZK 3.0bn, 20.8% ahead of our CZK 2.5bn estimate. More importantly, management announced they would be proposing a CZK 50 dividend per share, 25% above our expectation and that of the market. Overall, we view the underlying trends positively and believe they bode well for future earnings. On the back of the results, we have trimmed our 2008 net earnings forecast by 2.3% to CZK 12.1bn (+16.1% y/y), but have upgraded our forecasts by 9.8% to CZK 15.0bn (+24.2% y/y) for 2009 and 15.7% to CZK 16.9bn (+13.0% y/y) for 2010. However, our adjustment in the capital structure to reflect a sub-optimal balance sheet limits the valuation impact of our earnings upgrade to just 4.9%. Our new fair value estimate of CZK 678 per share implies 30.4% upside. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.