Příspěvky nebo odpovědi uživatele Jan.

díval ses na dnešní futures? a to chceš teď koupit? už dlouho nebyly 2% mínus...

Teda, ty zase vyvadis Ludku ...

Toto mne celkem zaujalo a myslim, ze s tim i souhlasim. Omlouvam se, pokud se nekomu bude zdat prispevek prilis dlouhy. * Stocks are moved by fundamentals and not technicals - I agree! Absolutely! Great earnings power stocks. No question about it. I simply believe, however, that the fundamentals are already built into the chart, as are everything else that can be known. The chart, after all, is the perfect representation of the balance between supply and demand for a given instrument. Don't you think the fundamental analysis is already built into that balance? I certainly hope you do. * Chart patterns, Fibonacci studies, trendlines, and other studies are silly - I've been charting for many years, and experience has taught me that all of these 'silly' methods are invaluable in predicting future price movements. Different techniques work for different people - for instance, I really don't use any technical studies, but rely far more on patterns - but that's just personal preference. And I don't find Fibonacci silly; instead, I find it almost eerily predictive of the future. * It's hubris to think you can predict the future based on technical analysis - On this point I disagree the strongest. In fact, I believe just the opposite - that fundamental analysis is the height of hubris. And that isn't just a "nyah" on my part. To my way of thinking, everything that can be known about a security is already built into a chart. Why on earth would anyone think they have some kind of special insight based on fundamentals? Don't you think all the million-buck-a-year analysts running around do a good job with this kind of thing? Do you think they actually missed something somehow? The chart has everything you need. Don't bother with fundamentals.

Jeste obrazek od Tima:http://photos1.blogger.com/img/239/4492/640/FibFans.jpg

Tim Knight to vidi na vyrazny pokles v USA v tomto roce. Zatim si nepamatuji, ze by mu nektera z jeho predpovedi nevysla. Vypada to, ze jsme asi uprostred 10lete faze kdy DJ bude oscilovat mezi 6000-11000.

Tak to uz tu dlooooooooouuuuuuuhoooooo nebylo, downgrade na CEZ. Zeby jsme ten vrchol jiz videli? Stale jsme dost vysoko a vyhled je to pekny.

Jeee hele, Milos Sobota s X6tkou. Tak co? Uz jsi nakoupil?

To se to pekne otocilo. Ale vyhrano jeste neni. Vcera Pijack rikal, ze TA neni schopna nahlasit nic dopredu. Nahlasil jsem supporty a prvni byl na 815. Neni to nic velkyho, ale kdo si dal na 815 nakupni prikaz zatim muze byt spokojen (i kdyz si myslim, ze nad 835 mel realizovat zisk). Spis bych veril az supportu na 781 ci niz (vzpomente na rijen, to se to taky na chvili otocilo).

Pozde Milosi, ja to opatrne hlasil uz v 10.49. Nahlasil jsi prodej zpetne ve 22:28 (coz je ostuda). Doufam ze nakup nahlasis ihned po realizovani, at se taky pobavime jak se ti to zelena/cervena. Dobrou noc Milosi.

Musim s tebou souhlasit. Vcera TA vydala docela pekny nakupni signal - maximum, celkem dobry objem - vsak to taky rano tak vypadalo. Signal k poklesu TA zaznamenala az nyni (tedy v prubehu dne a priznivci TA meli dost casu prodat - rychly skok z temer +2% do zaporu bez rychleho navratu uz neco znamena). Myslim, ze ani FA nam zadne varovani dopredu neprinesla.Uplne nesouhlasim s CW. TA casto dokaze naznacit vyvoj po HV.Nakonec neni to jedno? "Rika se ze system (TA, FA) je jen 10% co je treba ovladat, presto se vetsina soustredi prave na tech 10%" - uz nevim od koho jsem to citoval :)Tak jen aby se nereklo, ze se to nehlasi. predem:Dle Fib. jsou supporty priblizne na: 815, 781, 754, 727, 689 a 640. Necht si kazdy vybere ten, ktery se mu libi.

Nejsi ty nahodou ET? Co ta zmena nazoru?

CEZ ten urcite pod 800 nepujde - to je stejny vykrik jako "Dul, ten vam nikdo nemuze vzit ...." Dlouhodobi investori si jiz zvykli, ze CEZ vzdy opet vyroste a s velkou pravdepodobnosti to bude i ted. Presto je tu urcita moznost, ze nastava obrat. Potencial 100% je asi malo pravdepodobny ... Minuly tyden tu slo myslim info, ze prodavali lide z CEZu. Dnesni propad ma celkem silu. Takze s nakupem bych zatim pockal.

Zeby to bylo tak jednoduchy a korekce byla jako vloni? Nekdy je trh a az prekvapive jednoduchy...

Zeby to bylo tak jednoduchy a korekce byla jako vloni? Nekdy je trh a az prekvapive jednoduchy...

To ne vysledky, to ten trh si to zada :-) Myslim ze jeden spekulant rekl, ze firma (vysledky) je s cenou na burze svazana gumickou (dlouhou) ktera se muze natahovat ruznymi smery sem a tam.

Pokud by se MM a velkym hracum podarilo odpalit SL (prepokladam ze vi, kde jsou - ma nekdo tip? 820?), tak by z toho mohl byt i pekny pokles. CEZ je ale stale dost silny na zmenu trendu. Je dost mozny, ze tuto vyslekovou euforii prekona a pojede dal (i kdyz kdo vi, jestli se na dlohodobem grafu prave neobjevuje double top). V kazdym pripade s nakupem bych pockal na "pullback" ci potvrzeni trendu (napr. silny zaver po dnesnim propadu).

Jestlipak by se takhle graficky dala znazornit nalada na tomto chatu.http://ddo.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/investor_psychology_1.JPG

Minuly rok to bylo kolem 12 brezna. Predtim burza rostla, prekonavala rekordy, stejne jako nyni. Pak to spadlo fundament, nefundament. Prijde i letos?

Necetl jsi nahodou:http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/krantz/2006-01-31-day-trading_x.htm"Ugly" (Uglycharts) to na svem blogu rozebira. "Day trading may be gambling, but you can consistently make money as professionals do with poker or blackjack. Matt is correct that the odds are stacked against us, but that doesn't mean you can't find a way to consistently win. Anyway, everything in life is a gamble because life is random and unpredictable. Each decision in life has its risks and its rewards. In my opinion, long term investing is just as much of a poker game."

Milosi, to vis, pisou se sem ruzny veci. Nazory na mozny vyvoj kurzu akcii CEZ myslim na tento chat patri. Nebo ne? Nekdo pise o fundamentu, cenach elektriny, jiny se opre o grafy, ja jsem zase zminil Fib. urovne. Jak vidis, dnesni propad se opravdu zastavil na hodnote 787 (toto cislo bylo dano jiz v minulosti - staci si udelat Fib. urovne od pocatku rustu k maximu). Zde by mel nasledovat bud obrat, ci pokles k dalsi urovni (760).