Inflation rate at +3.8% in October 2023 - German Federal Statistical Office

Press release No. 429 of 8 November 2023

Consumer price index, October 2023
+3.8% on the same month a year earlier (provisional result confirmed)
+0.0% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed)

Harmonised index of consumer prices, October 2023
+3.0% on the same month a year earlier (provisional result confirmed)
-0.2% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed)

WIESBADEN -The inflation rate in Germany, measured as the year-on-year change in the consumer price index (CPI), stood at +3.8% in October 2023. In September 2023, the inflation rate was +4.5%. This means that the rate of inflation has continued to slow and reached the lowest level since August 2021 (also +3.8%)."Compared to the medium-term and long-term figures, the inflation rate remains high, however. In particular, consumers are still feeling the higher food and energy prices, which have risen during the extended period of war and crisis", says Ruth Brand , President of the Federal Statistical Office. She adds: "Currently, the price increase at consumer level is slowing down somewhat. The year-on-year rate of increase in food prices has continued to fall, and the prices of most energy products were even lower compared with the previous year." The Federal Statistical Office ( Destatis ) also reports that consumer prices in October 2023 remained unchanged from September 2023.

Energy product prices fell by 3.2% compared with October 2022

Energy product prices in October 2023 were 3.2% lower than in the same month a year earlier and therefore had a dampening effect on the inflation rate. In September 2023, the rate of increase in energy prices had been +1.0%. Prior to this, energy prices last declined year on year in January 2021 (-2.0% compared with January 2020). The much lower prices in October 2023 were primarily due to the high level of energy prices in the preceding years (only in German), which were marked by war and crisis (base effect). This is particularly apparent in the case of fuel prices, which were down 7.7% in October 2023 compared with a year earlier. Household energy prices remained almost unchanged over the same period (+0.1% on October 2022). Consumers had to pay considerably less, for instance, for heating oil (-28.2%) and natural gas (-13.0%) compared with the same month a year earlier. However, electricity was still markedly more expensive (+4.7%) in October 2023 than a year earlier.

Food prices remain driver of inflation: +6.1% from October 2022

Food prices were up 6.1% in October 2023 compared with the same month a year earlier. The surge in food prices therefore slowed further (September 2023: +7.5%; August 2023: +9.0%). A lower year-on-year increase in food prices than in October 2023 was last recorded in February 2022 (+5.4% on February 2021). The price increases in many food groups in October 2023 were still markedly higher than overall inflation. In particular, consumers had to pay much more for sugar, jam, honey and other confectionery (+13.4%) and for bread and cereals (+10.9%). Fruit (+9.6%) and fish, fish products and seafood (+8.6%) were also significantly more expensive. By contrast, edible fats and oils cost 13.3% less than a year earlier. Here, however, the prices of butter (-27.5%) and sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and the like (-16.7%) declined substantially, while olive oil prices (+38.0%) rose sharply.

Inflation rate excluding food and energy at +4.3%

Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate stood at +4.5% in October 2023. When food and energy prices are excluded, the inflation rate was +4.3%. These rates also demonstrate that inflation remains high in other product groups. The consumer price index excluding food and energy, which is often referred to as core inflation, exceeded overall inflation in both October 2023 and September 2023 at +4.3% and +4.6%, respectively (inflation rate in September 2023: +4.5%).

Goods prices up 3.6% on October 2022

The prices of goods (total) were up 3.6% in October 2023 compared with the same month a year earlier. The prices of non-durable consumer goods rose by 3.5%. In addition to higher food prices (+6.1%), price increases were observed in particular for non-alcoholic beverages (+8.8%) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+8.5%). The prices of durable consumer goods rose by 3.8% compared with October 2022.

Service prices up 3.9% year on year

In October 2023, the prices of services (total) increased by 3.9% year on year. The rate of price increase therefore scarcely changed (September 2023: +4.0%). The Germany ticket, which has been available since May 2023, has had a downward effect on service prices since September 2023. Consumers had to pay less in particular for the combined tickets for rail, bus and the like in October 2023 (-22.7% from the same month a year earlier). Net rents exclusive of heating expenses also had a dampening effect (+2.0%) and continued to be a significant contributor to the increase in service prices. However, the prices of a number of other services increased considerably, for instance services of social facilities (+10.7%), maintenance and repair of dwellings (+10.5%), package holidays (+8.8%) and restaurant services (+6.7%).

Prices of mineral oil products down 2.5% month on month

The consumer price index in October 2023 remained unchanged compared with September 2023 (0.0%). Energy prices as a whole decreased by 1.7% month on month. Motor fuel prices were down 2.8%. As regards household energy, lower prices were recorded in particular for natural gas (-1.3%). Food prices (total) hardly rose at all compared with the previous month (+0.1%). A number of prices, however, increased more substantially in October 2023, for instance clothing and footwear prices (+1.3%), due to seasonal factors.

Methodological notes:

The "Germany ticket" has been taken into account in the consumer price index since the start of May 2023. It resulted in price reductions in public regional and local passenger transport in May 2023. In October 2023, the Germany ticket also had a dampening effect, particularly on service prices. In addition, the current results are impacted by other measures of the Federal Government's third relief package, which are aimed in particular at containing the increase in energy prices. An overview explaining the different relief measures and their impact on the consumer price index is available on the website of the Federal Statistical Office.

The consumer price index (CPI) and the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) differ in coverage and methodology. In contrast to the HICP, the CPI also includes household expenditure on owner-occupied housing, games of chance and broadcasting fees. In addition, the HICP product weights are updated annually. As the weight of housing is much smaller in the HICP basket, price increases in other product groups have a larger impact on the HICP than on the CPI. These differences (coverage, methodology and weighting) explain the differences between the CPI and the HICP for Germany. Explanatory notes and a methodological paper which discusses this issue are provided on the website of the Federal Statistical Office.

Inflation Calculator for personal rate of inflation:

Consumers can use the Personal Inflation Calculator of the Federal Statistical Office to adapt their monthly consumption expenditure on individual product groups according to their own consumption patterns and to calculate their personal inflation rate. In addition, the Price Kaleidoscope gives an overview of the price trend and the weights of various products.

More information:

Detailed results can be found in the tables on the consumer price index (61111-0004) and (61111-0006) and on the harmonised index of consumer prices (61121-0002) and (61121-0006) in the GENESIS-Online database. Special items shown in Tables (61111-0006) and (61121-0006) contain CPI and HICP results which are used to measure "core inflation". The table "Verbraucherpreisindex – Preisentwicklung für Nahrungsmittel" (only in German) contains information on changes in the prices of individual food products.

Consumer price index results are also available on Dashboard Germany (www.dashboard-deutschland.de) (only in German). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool ( Pulsmesser Wirtschaft ) (only in German) for real-time economic monitoring.

Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the related sanctions are having an impact on many parts of the economy and society. Relevant data and information are provided on a special webpage (www.destatis.de/ukraine) (only in German).

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