Questions and answers on the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report
1. What is strategic foresight and how did it contribute to the Commission's work during this mandate?
Strategic foresight consists of exploring the future to support EU policymaking. It is about using collective intelligence in a structured and systematic way to help better develop possible transition pathways, prepare the EU to withstand shocks and shape the future we want.
Throughout this Commission's mandate, strategic foresight has helped to progress on President von der Leyen's six headline ambitions. Annual Strategic Foresight Reports inform the Commission's priorities, work programme and multiannual programming. In addition, other tools have been developed such as horizon scanning, and the use of foresight in Better Regulation was increased. This has helped to support the transition-led political agenda and make sure EU policies are fit for the future. It has inspired specific action, for example boosting resilience in the context of the European Semester and supporting initiatives such as the European Chips Act and the Critical Raw Materials Acts.
2. What process led to the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report? Did it include representatives outside the Commission?
The 2023 Strategic Foresight Report draws on a participative and inclusive foresight exercise conducted by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. It included the creation of foresight scenarios describing alternative versions of the EU's sustainable future by 2050 as well as the use of ‘backcasting' and other foresight methods. The foresight process also included consultations with experts and stakeholders, discussions with Commission services, agencies and joint undertakings, the publication of a call for evidence, and discussions with other European institutional partners (within the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System) as well as with Member States through the EU-wide Foresight Network.
3. How and why has this topic been chosen for the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report?
The four editions of the Strategic Foresight Report have followed a logical sequence. The first edition put forward resilience at the heart of policymaking (2020). The second focused on strengthening the EU's Open Strategic Autonomy (2021). The 2022 report analysed the twinning of the green and digital transitions, stressing that inclusiveness and affordability will play a key role in achieving them, beyond and besides technological innovation. Among its areas for action, it outlined that the EU needed to reflect on new methods to measure progress, beyond GDP. This has been followed up on in this year's report, notably with proposals towards adjusting GDP to take into account health, environment or social dimensions. This analysis will inform policies that contribute to achieving the EU's objective of becoming the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. It will also help deliver on the EU's ambition of building a fair and prosperous society where economic development is oriented towards greater sustainability, circularity and the protection of nature and people's wellbeing.
4. What are the main findings of the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report[1]?
First, the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report identifies six key challenges that policymakers will face during the transition towards a sustainable Europe, encompassing social and economic aspects of sustainability. These are: the rise of geopolitics and reconfiguration of globalisation; the quest for a sustainable economy and wellbeing; increasing pressure to ensure sufficient funding; growing demand for skills and competencies for the sustainable future; increasing cracks in social cohesion; and threats to democracy and to the existing social contract.
Second, the report proposes ten areas for action that the EU will need to take, to reinforce a socially and economically sustainable Europe with a stronger role in the world in the coming decades. Those areas for action cover a broad range of policy areas, from designing a new social contract and leveraging the power of our Single Market to supporting changes in production and consumption for greater sustainability.. We also propose to strengthen the interlinkages between the EU's internal and external policies to boost the EU's offer and narrative on the global stage. We also aim at moving towards a ‘Europe of investments', by attracting more private financing in support of strategic investments for the green and digital transitions. And, to better anticipate and therefore be better prepared for any future disaster or disruption, we recommend to complement civil protection with more ‘civil prevention'.
5. What are the main social and economic challenges in the transition towards a sustainable Europe?
The challenges identified in the report are the following:
- The rise of geopolitics and reconfiguration of globalisation: a new geopolitical landscape is challenging the foundations of multilateralism and the rules-based international order. This has consequences for Europe's economic security and for global cooperation on transnational issues, such as climate change and the energy transition;
- The quest for a sustainable economy and wellbeing: the EU is at a key juncture which requires a joint push from policymakers and businesses to ensure a leading position in the global race to the net-zero industry;
- The increasing pressure to ensure sufficient private and public funding for sustainability: the green transition requires unprecedented investments. Overall, additional investments of about EUR 620 billion annually will be needed to meet the objectives of the Green Deal and of our REPowerEU plan, with an additional EUR 92 billion needed to address the objectives of the Net-Zero Industry Act over the 2023-2030 period;
- Growing demand for skills and competences for the sustainable future: growing skills disparities and a lack of adequate competencies could impede the green and digital transitions and the ability of citizens to take part in and contribute to these transitions;
- Increasing cracks in social cohesion: eroding social cohesion will threaten trust in governments and the viability of the sustainability transition; The lack of intergenerational solidarity on climate, economic, and societal issues may contribute to their political alienation and disillusionment with the capacity of the current political class and system to address generational challenges.
- Threats to democracy and the existing social contract. Inequalities are deeply linked with lower trust in national and EU institutions, as well as with liberal democracy at large. Failure to address the health of European democracies will challenge both the roll-out of sustainable policies and the sustainability transition itself.
6. How will achieving a sustainable transition affect the global role of the EU?
A successful and fair socio-economic transformation is not a given. Together with its twin, the digital transition, the green transition requires pivotal changes and trade-offs that will affect, among others, our economies and societies at an unmatched pace and scale. To succeed in this transformation, it is essential to recognise the links between the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability. This will enable Europe to pursue a forward-looking geopolitical strategy that successfully leverages its most valuable assets – namely, its unique social market economy and its position as the largest trading block in the world.
The EU should continue strengthening its coordinated framework to achieve Open Strategic Autonomy, including economic security. The EU also needs to ensure that its climate, environmental, and energy policies are designed and implemented in a consistent manner with the EU's international ambitions and commitments. This entails taking into account the perspectives of its trading partners, as well as the impact of EU legislation on them. This could be achieved through increased dialogue, communication, diplomacy (green, digital, or cultural), and cooperation in their design and implementation.
7. Why is there a need to go ‘beyond GDP' and present adjusted metrics for sustainability and wellbeing?
With recent developments such as climate change and the pandemic, it has become increasingly clear that GDP is incomplete as a measure of progress, as it does not fully reflect important environmental or social challenges. GDP as a measure of economic progress will remain important, but it needs to be complemented with indicators of sustainability and wellbeing. Having solid measures of wellbeing and environmental protection will be pivotal to measure progress towards sustainability.
The Commission has started internal work on methodologies for possible ways of complementing GDP, for instance by taking into account factors which are important for societal wellbeing such as health and the environment. The ongoing internal work is bringing together different strands of pre-existing work for the first time, with the aim of informing future EU policymaking. The report presents the first results from this pilot work towards an adjusted GDP. This medium-term project aims at the development of an adjusted GDP and its progressive embedding into policymaking.
8. What are the key recommendations stemming from the report?
The report highlights that, to meet the social and economic challenges for the sustainability transition, the EU needs to act across a wide range of policies and priorities.
The ten priority areas for action are:
(1) ensure anew European social contract with renewed welfare policies and a focus on high-quality social services;
(2) deepen the Single Market to champion a net-zero economy, with a focus on Open Strategic Autonomy and economic security;
(3) boost the EU's offer on the global stage to strengthen cooperation with key partners;
(4) supportshifts in production and consumption patterns towards sustainability, targeting regulation and fostering balanced lifestyles;
(5) moving towards a‘Europe of investments' through public action to catalyse financial flows for the transactions;
(6) makingpublic budgets fit for sustainability through and efficient tax framework and public spending;
(7) further shiftpolicy and economic indicators towards sustainable and inclusive wellbeing, including adjusting GDP for different factors;
(8) ensure thatall Europeans can contribute to the transition by increasing labour market participation and focusing on future skills;
(9) strengthen democracy with generational fairness at the heart of policymaking, to reinforce the support for the transition;
(10) complement civil protection with ‘civil prevention' by reinforcing the EU's toolbox on preparedness and response.
9. What are the next steps in the Commission's strategic foresight agenda?
The Commission will continue mainstreaming strategic foresight into EU policymaking, to support its transition-led political agenda, while increasing its ability to cope with potential future crisis and challenges. We will also draw lessons learnt and reflect on future foresight priorities.
In addition, the work carried out by a foresight cluster of Member States led by Spain, together with the Commission's 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, will inform the discussion of Leaders in an informal European Council in Granada in October 2023.
On 14 November 2023, the Commission will co-organise, with the European Parliament, the annual conference ESPAS (European Strategy and Analysis System) conference.
For more information
2023 Strategic Foresight Report: Sustainability and people's wellbeing at the heart of Europe's Strategic Autonomy
Website on strategic foresight
